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Hunting Success Calculator! [V1.0] - Work in Progress!

Hunting Success Calculator! [V1.0] - Work in Progress!
Posted 2021-02-10 16:06:47 (edited)

(Scroll down for Calculator Info!)

Hello!

My name is Kaz and I thought I’d introduce myself before you start reading ahead. I’m a 25 yo. who is a little too obsessed with making spreadsheets and have been for many years.

Since the new Development Update (#6), Wolvden has changed the way that the hunting mechanism works to make stats play a bigger part in how skilled your wolves are at hunting different prey sizes (or at least, this is what I am getting from their update post). Proficiency and Synergy now play less of a part in the overall hunt as they used to however each point in both Synergy and Proficiency now get stronger the higher your wolf’s stats are.

I’ll be honest, the spreadsheet that the update provided us with initially confused me, and the more I looked at it in comparison with the hunts I was then getting, the less sense it made. After a while of literally just staring at the data at god knows what time of night because I have nothing better to do in a pandemic, I started to see a little pattern.


Individual Role Stats
First of all, let’s address “Wolf Stats”. What is this? It’s very vague? After some discussion with other players, I came to the consensus that it was the stat correlating to the required hunting role. What do I mean by this? If you are unaware, each hunting role (Stalker, Chaser, Finisher) favours one or two stats. 

Stalkers require high Smarts and Wisdom.
Chasers require high Agility and Speed.
Finishers require high Strength.
(thank you Grouse House!)

Anyway, back to wolf stats. It was confirmed by Admin Abbey on Blackwell’s #24705 Bug Report post that this was indeed the individual stat your wolf is expected to have for their hunting role.

“The spreadsheet shows the predicted results where your wolves have that amount of stats in the one or two stats that matter for their role. So for the 50 stat sheet, it is expected that your chasers have 50 in each Speed and Agility, and your finisher has 50 in Strength.”

The provided spreadsheet showed us data with wolves having 50 stats then 250 then 500. That is a huge jump, a lot of wolves on this site barely reach the 200 stat mark yet in their individual attributes. One of my hunting parties for example, sits strongly around a 150+ mark right now with some bordering on 200. I know, and have, data for wolves over the 200 mark but not even the top leaderboard wolves have 500 in a single attribute (at the time of writing this) yet. 

Between the Old System and the New System, we can see that hunting percentages have been nerfed for the most part. You can no longer guarantee that you will catch that Critter in the Rainforest with your low stat but highly proficient hunters. Instead, you have a 17% chance of catching the Critter because 50 stats means you are merely too weak to hunt in the challenging conditions. On the flip side highly proficient hunters with 250 stats respectively now actually have a higher chance of catching Large prey in the Rainforest on the New System (40%) than they did in the Old System (22%). Then when we eventually get to wolves with 500 individual stats, you can see that the New System is supposed to fix having a 0% chance of catching Large prey in the most challenging areas.


Understanding your Hunting Party Percentages
- in progress, coming soon!


----------------


A calculator has been made!
Thank you to Dżanek #24018 who, on this forum, managed to decipher a formula based on the data tables that recreates the hunting percentages from the original spreadsheet from Dev. Update #6. I took the formula and adjusted it a bit to make sure it reliably worked in Google Sheets with some help from Blackwell #24570. Doing so allowed me to create a successful calculator! It is not 100% accurate and I will be using the data from you guys to help streamline it especially as I have made a few assumptions about the weighting of Proficiency vs Total Synergy etc. 

To use it, click the link below then go to File > Make a Copy. From there on you should be able to edit it to your liking. Included is the calculator, a hidden 'back end' sheet, the hunting chances provided by Wolvden (and my first iteration of estimating other stats.) and finally the data I have been collecting from this forum.


Kaz's Hunting Success Calculator [V1.0]


I hope in time to make this as accurate as possible! Once we have done a cycle of seasons, I hope to add any buffs / debuffs (if any) to the final stats. As we know, Winter take a toll on hunting successfulness and it would be nice to see this reflected in the calculator as well.

There is also a second calculator! I love to see people on Wolvden excited by numbers as much as myself and whilst procrastinating working on my own calculator Rooster #30712 also created her own. I'd like to share this all with you as well! 

Rooster's Hunting Success Calculator

Thank you to everyone who has copied my form below to add to my data table. Feel free to keep doing this so I can sit and refine my calculations more. I appreciate each and everyone who has helped!

Finally, I will be updating the rest of this post in time to try explain the new percentages. Bare with me as I work through that :)


----------------


Edit #1 -  11 Feb: Morning all! I have added a form to the post under this if you would like to fill it out to contribute to my data collection. Throughout the day I'll be writing this whole post up better and working on the spreadsheet. Please bare with me whilst I try translate the nonsense in my brain into words ♥

Edit #2 - 11 Feb: I've begun properly writing as much information as possible on the new hew hunting percentages. My spreadsheet is linked at the bottom and is also a WIP. You'll see all the data that lovely people are commenting with popping up in there too ♥

Edit # 3 - Calculator links added courtesy of myself and Rooster #30712!



Kaz
#24750

Posted 2021-02-10 16:10:44 (edited)

Good Morning!

I can now use this area for what I planned to do last night.

I have created a form for those who wish to contribute to my madness. This simply goes through 7 short sections asking for information on:
• Your home biome & current season
• Your Stalker's Stats + Proficiency
• Your 3 Chaser's Stats + Proficiency
• Your Finisher's Stats + Proficiency
• Your Synergy and finally, the scent size + percentage shown to you

Some members with certain personalities will not get on with others and this will impact the successfulness of your hunt. You can either assess your party's compatibility via the Personality Snake or use this handy guide from the Grouse House on the Forums.

I can then input the data myself into my personal datasheet I have on the side :) Feel free to copy and paste your data if you want to submit multiple times but please do check that all the stats / percentages are correct!

Home Biome:
What season is it?
 (Winter/Spring/Summer/Autumn)
Whats the weather? (snow, fog etc.)

Stalker Total Stats:
Stalker Smarts Stats:
Stalker Wisdom Stats:
Stalker Proficiency: 

Chaser1 Total Stats: 
Chaser1 Speed Stats: 
Chaser1 Agility Stats: 
Chaser1 Proficiency: 

Chaser2 Total Stats: 
Chaser2 Speed Stats: 
Chaser2 Agility Stats: 
Chaser2 Proficiency: 

Chaser3 Total Stats: 
Chaser3 Speed Stats: 
Chaser3 Agility Stats: 
Chaser3 Proficiency: 

Finisher Total Stats:
Finisher Strength Stats:
Finisher Proficiency: 

Do all your members have compatible personalities? (Yes/No/Unsure)
Total Party Synergy:
Prey Scent Size: (Critter/Small/Medium/Large)
Hunting Percentage:

Any other information:
(have you noticed a change in %? etc.)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Here is an example using my Main Hunting Party consisting of 
ChertAlva, RöskrZisa & Titanium (in that order).

Home Biome: Mountains
Season: Winter
Weather: Snow

Stalker Total Stats: 473
Stalker Smarts Stats: 139
Stalker Wisdom Stats: 129
Stalker Proficiency: 99%

Chaser1 Total Stats: 369
Chaser1 Speed Stats: 72
Chaser1 Agility Stats: 71
Chaser1 Proficiency: 98%

Chaser2 Total Stats: 718
Chaser2 Speed Stats: 167 
Chaser2 Agility Stats: 192
Chaser2 Proficiency: 98%

Chaser3 Total Stats: 361
Chaser3 Speed Stats: 86
Chaser3 Agility Stats: 80
Chaser3 Proficiency: 98%

Finisher Total Stats: 474
Finisher Strength Stats: 184
Finisher Proficiency: 99%

Do all your members have compatible personalities? Yes
Total Party Synergy: 96%
Prey Scent Size: Large
Hunting Percentage: 35%
&
Prey Scent Size: Medium
Hunting Percentage: 52%

Thank you to any who provide me with their info ♥ I greatly appreciate it. 

If anyone has any ideas / suggestions / also wants to dive into math hell with me then feel free to comment on this post!

I can't guarantee this will go anywhere in terms of a successful resource as I'm just doing this in my spare time, so please bare with me.

Edit to form #1: Added the option to state the weather thanks to #27549's suggestion.


Kaz
#24750

Posted 2021-02-10 22:43:21

I barely understood how it worked before, why they gotta go and change it 😂 Following!


💜Scouting for Booty💜
#1810

Posted 2021-02-11 06:41:21 (edited)

Thanks for doing this! I would love to know some other percentages, especially in other biomes, because from just 10 or 12 hunts this morning, it seems like my hunters got a pretty big nerf... I understand that it's winter, but they did NOT do this bad last winter when they had fewer stats. Also I wish I wrote it down but just from what I remember it seems like the success rate is halved when it's raining.

Home Biome: Rainforest
What season is it?
 Winter
What's the weather? Fog

Stalker Total Stats: 704
Stalker Smarts Stats: 200
Stalker Wisdom Stats: 194
Stalker Proficiency: 100%

Chaser1 Total Stats: 735
Chaser1 Speed Stats: 191
Chaser1 Agility Stats: 218
Chaser1 Proficiency: 100%

Chaser2 Total Stats: 705
Chaser2 Speed Stats: 194
Chaser2 Agility Stats: 195
Chaser2 Proficiency: 100%

Chaser3 Total Stats: 676
Chaser3 Speed Stats: 216
Chaser3 Agility Stats: 205
Chaser3 Proficiency: 100%

Finisher Total Stats: 627
Finisher Strength Stats: 214
Finisher Proficiency: 100%

Do all your members have compatible personalities? Yes
Total Party Synergy: 100%
Prey Scent Size: Critter
Hunting Percentage: 36%


Zea
#27549

Posted 2021-02-11 07:02:24

Got another hunt for you... all I can say is Oof, really feeling the synergy/proficiency hit after I swapped a chaser for a scout :/

Home Biome: Rainforest
What season is it?
 Winter
What's the weather? Fog

Stalker Total Stats: 670
Stalker Smarts Stats: 206
Stalker Wisdom Stats: 196
Stalker Proficiency: 100%

Chaser1 Total Stats: 614
Chaser1 Speed Stats: 178
Chaser1 Agility Stats: 181
Chaser1 Proficiency: 100%

Chaser2 Total Stats: 932
Chaser2 Speed Stats: 219
Chaser2 Agility Stats: 174
Chaser2 Proficiency: 49%

Chaser3 Total Stats: 717
Chaser3 Speed Stats: 205
Chaser3 Agility Stats: 191
Chaser3 Proficiency: 100%

Finisher Total Stats: 585
Finisher Strength Stats: 220
Finisher Proficiency: 100%

Do all your members have compatible personalities? Yes
Total Party Synergy: 89%


Prey Scent Size: Critter
Hunting Percentage: 28%

Prey Scent Size: Small
Hunting Percentage: 7%



Zea
#27549

Posted 2021-02-11 07:25:38

I find it so interesting to see how it changes if you have a hunter in your party that you are training. Thank you! You have some powerhouse hunters for sure!


Kaz
#24750

Posted 2021-02-11 07:34:23

Hope this helps!

Home Biome: rainforest
What season is it?
 Winter
Whats the weather? Wind

Stalker Total Stats: 817
Stalker Smarts Stats: 270
Stalker Wisdom Stats: 264
Stalker Proficiency: 100

Chaser1 Total Stats: 783
Chaser1 Speed Stats: 254
Chaser1 Agility Stats: 231
Chaser1 Proficiency: 100

Chaser2 Total Stats: 820
Chaser2 Speed Stats: 237
Chaser2 Agility Stats: 202
Chaser2 Proficiency: 100

Chaser3 Total Stats: 720
Chaser3 Speed Stats: 215
Chaser3 Agility Stats: 207
Chaser3 Proficiency: 100

Finisher Total Stats: 475
Finisher Strength Stats: 150
Finisher Proficiency: 40

Do all your members have compatible personalities? Yes
Total Party Synergy: 88
Prey Scent Size: critter, small
Hunting Percentage: 37, 13


Fran
#19368

Posted 2021-02-11 07:42:50

Yeah, this is a lot lower than I would have hoped. Maybe I just really don't understand their spreadsheet, or winter is a much bigger nerf than I realized. Still, I got a 6 hunt quest from the snake and so far I am 2/12. At this rate I will fail, which in the history of having 3 hunting teams I have NEVER had happen, even before the update when it was still possible to get 8 or 9 hunt quests. Anyone feel like this was a pretty big nerf?

Home Biome: Rainforest
What season is it? Winter
What's the weather? Wind

Stalker Total Stats: 544
Stalker Smarts Stats: 151
Stalker Wisdom Stats: 142
Stalker Proficiency: 100%

Chaser1 Total Stats: 853
Chaser1 Speed Stats: 199
Chaser1 Agility Stats: 169
Chaser1 Proficiency: 100%

Chaser2 Total Stats: 739
Chaser2 Speed Stats: 201
Chaser2 Agility Stats: 208
Chaser2 Proficiency: 100%

Chaser3 Total Stats: 763
Chaser3 Speed Stats: 204
Chaser3 Agility Stats: 211
Chaser3 Proficiency: 100%

Finisher Total Stats: 776
Finisher Strength Stats: 268
Finisher Proficiency: 100%

Do all your members have compatible personalities? Yes
Total Party Synergy: 100%

Prey Scent Size: Critter
Hunting Percentage: 34%


Zea
#27549

Posted 2021-02-11 07:48:15 (edited)

I've actually had much better luck hunting since the change, but I'm only in a medium biome. 

Home Biome: Prairie 

What season is it? Winter
Whats the weather? snow & fog 

Stalker Total Stats: 730
Stalker Smarts Stats: 218
Stalker Wisdom Stats: 217
Stalker Proficiency: 100

Chaser1 Total Stats: 667
Chaser1 Speed Stats: 210
Chaser1 Agility Stats: 191
Chaser1 Proficiency: 100

Chaser2 Total Stats: 614
Chaser2 Speed Stats: 177
Chaser2 Agility Stats: 157
Chaser2 Proficiency: 100

Chaser3 Total Stats: 559
Chaser3 Speed Stats: 154
Chaser3 Agility Stats: 129
Chaser3 Proficiency: 100

Finisher Total Stats: 584
Finisher Strength Stats: 238
Finisher Proficiency: 100

Do all your members have compatible personalities? Yes
Total Party Synergy: 100
Prey Scent Size: Large/Medium/Small
Hunting Percentage: 26%/38%/64%

Edit: updated with latest hunt information since not much changed



Shyy
#1839

Posted 2021-02-11 08:06:56

Hey, got a small trail on my team #1 so here ya go. Nothing changed but for completeness I'll add it all here.

Home Biome: Rainforest
What season is it?
 Winter
What's the weather? Fog

Stalker Total Stats: 704
Stalker Smarts Stats: 200
Stalker Wisdom Stats: 194
Stalker Proficiency: 100%

Chaser1 Total Stats: 735
Chaser1 Speed Stats: 191
Chaser1 Agility Stats: 218
Chaser1 Proficiency: 100%

Chaser2 Total Stats: 705
Chaser2 Speed Stats: 194
Chaser2 Agility Stats: 195
Chaser2 Proficiency: 100%

Chaser3 Total Stats: 676
Chaser3 Speed Stats: 216
Chaser3 Agility Stats: 205
Chaser3 Proficiency: 100%

Finisher Total Stats: 627
Finisher Strength Stats: 214
Finisher Proficiency: 100%

Do all your members have compatible personalities? Yes
Total Party Synergy: 100%

Prey Scent Size: Critter
Hunting Percentage: 36%

Prey Scent Size: Small
Hunting Percentage: 13%


Zea
#27549

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