[Scrying Project] Detailed Base Genetics Guide

Scrying Project: Detailed Base Genetics Guide

Introduction

This is intended to be a data-backed guide for how bases pass. This is NOT intended to be an all-encompassing genetics guide. The Grouse House Genetics Guide is extremely thorough, and I suggest you use it as your primary source for genetics information. This is intended to be a more detailed, open-source research backed guide for specific base breeding scenarios

This guide is Grouse House affiliated! Much thanks to all of the Grouse House members for their support and help.

How We Gather Data

To understand the biases our data may have, we must first explain how it was gathered. This is important to keep in mind when reading our data and numbers.

All of the data here has been collected via the scrying stone, using markingless parents to ensure that bases are not misidentified. I have confirmed via modbox that the scrying stone has the exact same RNG as an actually generated litter, except that it does not show mutations.  

All of the parents who were scried against each other had no markings, so that there would be a decreased chance of misidentifying any bases. However, all the bases of the pups that were scried were identified by a human being, meaning that there may be a potential margin of error because of that.

All of the data is logged in this spreadsheet. It is a copy of a private, editable spreadsheet and then copied over to this public, non-editable spreadsheet for viewing purposes.

Breeding Bases with Matching Categories

"Any pairing that has matching categories, shades and rarities (with the exception of Specials) will have a 25% chance of passing their base directly onto the pup. This is an additional roll near to the end of the base choosing script and after genetics have run. If the categories are the same but the rarities are different, this drops down to smaller chances, depending on the differences between the rarities. If it’s only one step apart (I x II, or II x III) then the chance is lowered to 5%. If it’s significant (I x III), this falls to a mere 0.5%." (Quoted directly from Wolvden Tumblr Post)

For example, the bases fox and wulfenite both have the same base categories (warm medium) and rarities (III). This means they will have an extra 25% chance of passing their base directly onto their offspring. 

Another example: the bases fox and saffron both have the same base categories (warm medium), but differing rarities (III and II). This means they will have an extra 5% chance of passing their base directly onto their offspring, because they are one step apart in rarity.

This is important to note, because in breedings with extremely low success rates, one can dramatically increase their odds by matching base categories and rarities.

Credits

This guide has been brought to you with the help of yours truly, and many helpers. I could not have put this together without their help logging scrying data, organizing the spreadsheets and interpreting the data. Here is a list of the members who have helped me with this guide!

Newfluffland (#751)
OrangeNeon (#32185)
Karter (#1690)
Maddie (#201)
fridaySnack (#1729)
🕸️Websteak🥩 (#27549)
🌧Mange🌧 (#13736)
Unika 🦇 (#7754)
GrayEmbers (#29636)
Lily (#3016) 

Layout by ♥ Boba (#1999)

Breeding: I x I with Non-Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base (insert base here) and (insert base here) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab ? of the spreadsheet.

Note: Given that all breedings can only produce a rarity pup equal to the highest rarity parents, I x I will produce tier I pups 100% of the time.

Currently, this is based off of 0 scries and 0 pups.

No tests performed. Come back later! I plan to break down the percentage of bases that are the parents' base vs anything other base.

Breeding: I x I Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base (insert base here) and (insert base here) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab ? of the spreadsheet.

Note: Given that all breedings can only produce a rarity pup equal to the highest rarity parents, I x I will produce tier I pups 100% of the time.

Currently, this is based off of 0 scries and 0 pups.

No tests performed. Come back later! I plan to break down the percentage of bases that are the parents' base vs anything other base.

Layout by ♥ Boba (#1999)

Breeding: I x II with Non-Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base (insert base here) and (insert base here) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab ? of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 0 scries and 0 pups.

Theorized Rate:
Tier I: ??% 
Tier II: ??%

**This is a proposed theory based of the totality of the current data. This may change as more data is collected.

Scried Rate:
Tier I: ??%
Tier II: ??%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:
Tier I: 0
Tier II: 0

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 0 pups total.

Breeding: I x II with Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base (insert base here) and (insert base here) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab ? of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 0 scries and 0 pups.

Theorized Rate:

Tier I: ??%
Tier II: ??%

**This is a proposed theory based of the totality of the current data. This may change as more data is collected.

Scried Rate:

Tier I: ??%
Tier II: ??%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:
Tier I: 0
Tier II: 0
Tier III: 0

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 0 pups total.

Breeding: II x II with Non-Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base (insert base here) and (insert base here) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab ? of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 0 scries and 0 pups.

Theorized Rate:

Tier I: ??%
Tier II: ??%

**This is a proposed theory based of the totality of the current data. This may change as more data is collected.

Scried Rate:

Tier I: ??%
Tier II: ??%
Tier III: ??%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:

Tier I: 0
Tier II: 0
Tier III: 0

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 0 pups total.

Breeding: II x II with Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base (insert base here) and (insert base here) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab ? of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 0 scries and 0 pups.

Theorized Rate:

Tier I: ??
Tier II: ??

**Not enough data has been collected for me to feel confident in making a solid theory. This will update when more scries have been performed.

Scried Rate:
Tier I: ??%
Tier II: ??%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:

Tier I: 0
Tier II: 0
Tier III: 0

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 0 pups total.

Layout by ♥ Boba (#1999)

Breeding: III x III with Non-Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base Fox (Warm Medium III) and Opal (Cool Light III) were bred together. All of the logged scries can be found in Tab C of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 200 scries and 800 pups.

Theorized Rate:
Tier I: 39% 
Tier II: 59%
Tier III: 2%

**This is a proposed theory based of the totality of the current data. This may change as more data is collected.

Scried Rate:
Tier I: 39.00%
Tier II: 59.00%
Tier III: 2.00%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:
Tier I: 312
Tier II: 472
Tier III: 16

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 800 pups total.

10 out of 16 TIII pups, or approximately 62.5%, were born with one of their parents' bases (in this case, Fox or Opal).

Conversely, 6 out of 16 TIII pups, or approximately 37.5%, were born with a base different than one of their parents (in this case, other than Fox or Opal).

Breeding: III x III with Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base Fox (Warm Medium III) and Mojave (Warm Medium III) were bred together. All of the logged scries can be found in Tab B of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 100 scries and 400 pups.

Theorized Rate:

Tier I: 32.5%
Tier II: 40%
Tier III: 27.5%

**This is a proposed theory based of the totality of the current data. This may change as more data is collected.

Scried Rate:

Tier I: 32.75%
Tier II: 38.25%
Tier III: 29.00%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:
Tier I: 131
Tier II: 153
Tier III: 116

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 400 pups total.

115 out of 116 TIII pups, or 99%, were born with one of their parents' bases (in this case, Fox or Mojave).

Conversely, 1 out of 116 TIII pups, or less than 1%, were born with a base different than one of their parents (in this case, other than Fox or Mojave).

Breeding: III x III with Matching Bases

For this particular experiment, the base Fox (Warm Medium III) and Fox (Warm Medium III) were bred together. All of the logged scries can be found in Tab A of the spreadsheet.

There was no notable difference between matching bases and matching base categories.

Currently, this is based off of 100 scries and 400 pups.

Theorized Rate:

Tier I: 32.5%
Tier II: 40%
Tier III: 27.5%

**This is a proposed theory based of the totality of the current data. This may change as more data is collected.

Scried Rate:

Tier I: 32.00%
Tier II: 40.25%
Tier III: 27.75%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:

Tier I: 128
Tier II: 161
Tier III: 111

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 400 pups total.

108 out of 111 TIII pups, or approximately 97%, were born with one of their parents' bases (in this case, Fox).

Conversely, 3 out of 111 TIII pups, or approximately 3%, were born with a base different than one of their parents (in this case, other than Fox).

Breeding: III x II with Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base Fox (Warm Medium III) and Saffron (Warm Medium II) were bred together. All of the logged scries can be found in Tab D of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 100 scries and 400 pups.

Theorized Rate:

Tier I: ??
Tier II: ??
Tier III: ??

**Not enough data has been collected for me to feel confident in making a solid theory. This will update when more scries have been performed.

Scried Rate:
Tier I: 45.25%
Tier II: 53.00%
Tier III: 1.75%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:

Tier I: 181
Tier II: 212
Tier III: 7

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 400 pups total.

Breeding: III x II with Non-Matching Categories

For this particular experiment, the base Fox (Warm Medium III) and Siqoq (Monochrome Light II) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab E of the spreadsheet.

 Currently, this is based off of 400 scries and 1600 pups.

Theorized Rate:
Tier I: 49.75%
Tier II: 50.00%
Tier III: 0.25%

 **Not enough data has been collected for me to feel confident in making a solid theory. This will update when more scries have been performed.

Scried Rate:
Tier I: 47.50%
Tier II: 52.31%
Tier III: 0.19%

 **This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:
Tier I: 760
Tier II: 837
Tier III: 3

 **This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 1600 pups total.

Layout by ♥ Boba (#1999)

Breeding: Special x Special with Matching Bases

For this particular experiment, the base Selene (Special Light *) and Selene (Special Light *) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab F of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 200 scries and 800 pups.

Staff have confirmed that breeding Special x Special will result in Special 5% of the time in this news post.

Theorized Rate:

Tier I: 47%
Tier II: 47%
Tier III: 1%
Special: 5%

**This is a proposed theory based of the totality of the current data. This may change as more data is collected.

Scried Rate:

Tier I: 44.63%
Tier II: 49.00%
Tier III: 0.88%
Special: 5.50%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:

Tier I: 357
Tier II: 392
Tier III: 7
Special: 44

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 800 pups total.

Breeding: Special x III with Matching Shades

For this particular experiment, the base Selene (Special Light *) and Opal (Cool Light III) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab H of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 200 scries and 800 pups.

Theorized Rate:

Tier I: ??
Tier II: ??
Tier III: ??
Special: ??

**Not enough data has been collected for me to feel confident in making a solid theory. This will update when more scries have been performed.

Scried Rate:

Tier I: 37.50%
Tier II: 51.63%
Tier III: 10.00%
Special: 0.88%

**This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:

Tier I: 300
Tier II: 413
Tier III: 80
Special: 7

**This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 800 pups total.

Breeding: Special x III with Non-Matching Shades

For this particular experiment, the base Selene (Special Light *) and Fox (Warm Medium III) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab I of the spreadsheet.

Currently, this is based off of 100 scries and 400 pups.

Theorized Rate:
Tier I: ??
Tier II: ??
Tier III: ??
Special: ??

 **Not enough data has been collected for me to feel confident in making a solid theory. This will update when more scries have been performed.

Scried Rate:
Tier I: 42.75%
Tier II: 52.25%
Tier III: 2.75%
Special: 2.25%

 **This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:
Tier I: 171
Tier II: 209
Tier III: 11
Special: 9

 **This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 400 pups total.

Breeding: Special x II with Matching Shades

For this particular experiment, the base Selene (Special Light *) and Siqoq (Monochrome Light II) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab G of the spreadsheet. 

Currently, this is based off of 200 scries and 800 pups.

Theorized Rate:
Tier I: ??
Tier II: ??
Tier III: ??
Special: ??

 **Not enough data has been collected for me to feel confident in making a solid theory. This will update when more scries have been performed.

Scried Rate:
Tier I: 48.25%
Tier II: 50.38%
Tier III: 0.13%
Special: 1.25%

 **This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:
Tier I: 386
Tier II: 403
Tier III: 1
Special: 10

 **This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 800 pups total.

Breeding: Special x II with Non-Matching Shades

For this particular experiment, the base Selene (Special Light *) and Lilac (Cool Dark II) were bred together. All the logged scries can be found in Tab J of the spreadsheet.

 Currently, this is based off of 100 scries and 400 pups.

Theorized Rate:
Tier I: ??
Tier II: ??
Tier III: ??
Special: ??

 **Not enough data has been collected for me to feel confident in making a solid theory. This will update when more scries have been performed.

Scried Rate:
Tier I: 52.25%
Tier II: 45.50%
Tier III: 0.5%
Special: 1.75%

 **This is the percentage collected from the actual scries performed.

Breakdown:
Tier I: 209
Tier II: 182
Tier III: 2
Special: 7 

 **This is exactly how many pups came out each tier in our experiment. This will add up to 400 pups total.

Layout by ♥ Boba (#1999)