Lunar Event #44! (September 20th - 26th, 2024)
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Posted 2024-09-20 19:23:04
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 🐾Alymiell🐾 #18317 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 07:33:24
Maybe we can get some cool eye combos later, too? :) |
 Miso 🥣 #1101 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 11:49:50 (edited)
I wondered how many other people shared my sentiment, so I decided to find out with a little investigating and statistics to answer the question: what is the overall immediate reception to the new combo base? We already have non-lunar combo marking colors so that's not a new feature, plus it would be very complicated to keep track of all the matching slots, so I will only be focusing the new base. Here's a summary of what we know and the current status at time of posting:
Attempted Breedings & MathBy searching for pups born with the fail colors - selene and luna - we can estimate how many breedings were attempted. Provided the person is rolling every day, pups born today are 0 months and those born yesterday would be 0.5 months. So firing up the wolf search for selene and luna wolves under 1 month old gives us a way to find all pups born after the combo feature was implemented. This gives us:
Given the 5% pass rate, the probability p of passing a special base at least once in n tries is p = 1–(0.95)^n I am discounting the rate of the combo occurring because we don't have a clue what it is, and it would take some away from selene and luna meaning the true rate for either is actually lower. SO The number of pups born to have a 50% chance of luna or selene passing is 14, or about 5 litters (probably fewer, as I would imagine people would use sages on these litters). But that's still not great odds, so let's bump it up. A 90% chance of any selene or luna passing to pups requires 45 pups born, or maybe 15 litters. For a 99% chance of one of them showing up, we would need 90 pups born by today. As there are zero pups with selene or luna born since the combo announcement, it is extremely likely that fewer than 30 breedings were attempted and instant birthed, but probably more like less than 15. Since it's all just RNG and we can't be sure, I would not be surprised if the number of pairs bred and instant delivered is zero. Searching for Luna or Selene based studs who rolled today also supports that very few breeding were performed. There are 13 selene or luna studs who rolled today. Talking a peek through their offspring list, only one litter was born yesterday, and their mother was not the second factor for creating the combo base. Although by the number of stud slots they have lefe it does look like these studs were bred this week, so maybe we will see some in the future! Value Increase?I also wondered if perhaps this new combo idea will revitalize the market and make luna and selene base apps more valuable. However, as of this writing, there is one selene app for sale for 60 GC and two luna, one for 45 and one for 50. In comparison, the other lunar special light (Antumbra, Crystal, Diana, Nightchill, and Turquoise) are listed for 40-78 and the mediums (Biform, Caelum, Moonlight, Penumbra, Spore) are listed for 45-85. So it doesn't seem like people are snatching those bases up either. Maybe they are able to buy all of them they want from the lunar shop themselves? But if the playerbase was really trying for the combo, I would expect to see the prices elevated even though they are available in the shops, since each plater can only earn a limited amount of LT each rollover.Pass Rate PonderingsA bit of a sidenote: I also wonder what the chance to even get a combo base is. I was contemplating using some SC to scry some luna / selene wolves and counting the offspring, but some friends and I discovered a while ago that combo marks probably aren't showing up in the scrying stone. We already know that they scry stone isn't an accurate copy of the actual breeding script as mutations do not show up, so there might be other changes that make it inaccurate for predicting bases as well. Although I am interested in the proc rate of selunia, I'm not really willing to give up my time and SC to collect data that may not be accurate.New Combo Hype?Overall, it seems like people aren't really changing their behavior or play style to really go for this new combo. This is a huge contrast with what I remember about the T3 release, with people buying any female (for upwards of 5GC!), applying an elk heart, breeding to a fox stud, and birthing the litter immediately! Personally I am a bit underwhelmed as, even though selunia is a breed-only special base (oooooh fancy!) it doesn't offer anything new or interesting. It looks really similar to already existing lunar bases, and can't pass on anything new or exciting. With breed-only T3s, you can get lucky and get other shades and bases, plus the pass rate seems to be better. But with specials, you can only ever get the same base, which you can just get with an applicator. Breeding a combo of one seems like a lot of hassle with little payoff. Now, combo T3? Or even non-lunar specials? That would be a different story!So what do you think? Are you trying to breed the new base? Are you excited for selunia or combos in general? |
 Zea #27549 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 16:14:28
Also, in order for pups to have been born already with the special base, people would have to not only be mass breeding but also mass ibf'ing. Maybe give it more time before making assumptions on whether or not the community is happy with something they voted on. |
 Shunkana #110039 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 16:22:02
Also, do the markings only combo during night breedings just like the base? It wasn't said one way or the other so I would aire on the side of caution and assume that yes, the breeding has to occur at night, but clarification on this stuff could be useful for the community. |
Shunkana #110039 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 18:16:44
I was curious about the playerbase's reaction to selunia on a wide scale, so after doing some digging I thought other people might be interested too. I even highlighted in the original post that this was look into the Immediate response to combo bases. It looks like you don't have any selene or luna wolves in your den; is there a reason for that? Are my generalizations incorrect? Judging by your join date you weren't around for the T3 release in late 2020. I guarantee you back then people were breeding and IBF-ing immediately and en mass, and I find the contrast between now and then interesting. |
Zea #27549 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 18:32:32
And you're right, I wasn't here for the first bit T3 update. But the climate of wolvden - and largely its economy - have changed since then. T3 NBWs aren't worth as much as they were back then - nothing is. My guess is people don't want to blow a bunch of gc, unnecessarily, on getting puppies 2-3 days earlier than they would naturally. Especially since Black Friday is just around the corner, people might be saving what gc they currently have/not planning on buying more until BF. Just because people aren't buying new bases, throwing them on wolves, pairbonding said wolves or making whole new studs, breeding those in mass and then ibf'ing every pair just for the combo base that was released literally yesterday doesn't mean that the community disapproves of it. They literally voted on it, after all. |
Shunkana #110039 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 18:39:20 (edited)
Also, I don't think most realized initially how low the chances for T3s were from a T3xT2/T1 breeding, so more people were willing to spend on an IBF for that reason alone. For this base we can guess, ha. Plus it's almost impossible to mass breed for this base. You can use studs but you risk them not accepting your request at night time. So most will probably stick to pairbonds and may need to get both bases first. Edit: another big difference is that people could send their t1/t2 wolves to a fox stud, while this time they essentially need to get two special bases first for each attempt. |
🐾Alymiell🐾 #18317 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 18:42:25
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Zea #27549 |
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Posted 2024-09-21 18:44:24
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Shunkana #110039 |