Breeding Probability Outcomes Calculator

Have you ever wondered how likely it is to get a desired outcome from a particular pairing? Or how lucky (or unlucky) you were with a certain litter? If you are like me, the answer is "Yes, all the time!" and I was sick of doing the math from scratch so I made a spreadsheet that would do it for me!

Here's the spreadsheet!

You will need a google account. Please save a copy on your drive/cloud/wherever so you can edit it. It may not be pretty, but it is useful! (How does everyone get their spreadsheets so nice with the colors and the borders aaaaah)

The instructions and examples are provided in the sheet, so simply follow along!

As long as you enter the correct probability of your desired outcome, such as breeding a carrier, T3, mutie, anything! It will calculate based on litter size how likely it is that one or more of your puppies inherit the desired trait. It's very adaptable so if new markings come out with different pass rates or the probability to get a T3 from a T2 is ever clarified, you can keep using the same sheet.

I put some handy reference charts at the top with common known probabilities from the wiki or the grouse hose, but the best resource I know of so far about the chance to get certain bases is This Thread! Naike is constantly collecting more data though, so these values may change. Please check it out!

Here's a peek at the calculations the spreadsheet does!       

I hope this is useful to you... and fun, if you are a nerd like me!

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If anyone wants to check my math, here is the formula that is used.

Given the pass rate of p, the chance of getting exactly k desired outcomes out of total attempts (litter size) n is:

Then to get the value for "At Least x pups", all values at x pups and above are added together. Column B is hidden to do the factorial but otherwise everything is calculated within the cell.