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Vern's data for random mutations pt. 3

Vern's data for random mutations pt. 3
Posted 2023-04-08 15:03:49
#992400
To see my previous post using a different method to get close to the chance of a random mutation being born, check here

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Back at it again with another attempt to estimate the percent chance of a random mutation to be born at any given time! This time, I went puppy by puppy. These were my constrictions due to sheer amount of results in the search bar:
  1. Pups must have been 0 months and rolled over today (so just born today April 8th)

  2. They must not have been immortalized

  3. They were looked at 1 generation at a time up to 10th generation


Here is a link to my data collection: link
Also, the limitations of this data are as follows:
  • I did not count every puppy one by one to get the total of non-immortal puppies, so it is possible the total puppies per generation are off marginally

  • Puppies that were born today but immortalized immediately were also not counted, which may affect the estimation of occurrence of the random mutations

  • I can obviously not record puppies that were born and then subsequently chased, so it is possible any of those theoretical puppies were mutated and were not counted



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So, here are my findings based on today:
  • At any given time, a puppy has a .17% chance of having a single random mutation (there were none with 2)

  • This means that 1 in every 589 puppies will have one random mutation (conjoined twins, polycephaly, polymelia, spontaneous blindness, and deafness)

  • Nonlethal mutations are shown to occur 4 times more than lethal mutations (only 1 lethal recorded in a total of 2975 puppies)--it is possible that the most pressing lethality of the mutation (how quickly it kills the pup) correlates with it occurring more rarely in newborns

  • Proximity to 4th generation seems to correlate with a higher occurrence of random mutations, the most occurring in that generation and the subsequent 2 generations having higher than the median random mutations

  • There is a loose correlation with a higher frequency of random mutations in higher generation puppies despite there being less overall pups in the gene pool -- more data of higher generations would be required to confirm
vernillion
#106571
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